Abstract:
Human-tiger conflict is widely assumed to intensify as tiger populations recover, posing a major challenge for the conservation of tigers across its range. Despite the influence of this assumption on management and public perception, it has rarely been examined using range- wide evidence. We conducted a broad, exploratory synthesis of associations between tiger population trends and reported conflict incidents across ten tiger range countries between 2010 and 2025, a period marked by substantial global tiger recovery. Using harmonised country- year data compiled from heterogeneous sources, we assessed whether increases in tiger abundance were consistently associated with changes in human fatalities, livestock depredation, and overall conflict incidents, and examined how selected ecological, anthropogenic, and management covariates aligned with observed patterns. Across the compiled dataset, tiger population size showed no consistent associations except for a weak positive association with human fatalities, although this relationship was highly variable and was sensitive to a small number of observations. In contrast, human population density was positively associated with human fatalities, while protected area coverage was negatively associated with human fatalities. Wild prey density showed no detectable association with any conflict outcome at the national scale. Given the aggregated, partially interpolated, and non- experimental nature of the data, all detected relationships are interpreted as associative rather than causal. Nonetheless, our findings contradict the pervasive narrative that tiger recovery inevitably escalates conflict. Instead, conflict patterns appear contingent on human exposure, land-use context, and management conditions, rather than carnivore abundance alone. These findings highlight the importance of integrating population recovery with strategies that reduce human–tiger interaction to support long-term coexistence and conservation of tigers in shared landscapes.
Dhungana, R., Aryal, A. and Ramp, D. (2026) ‘Testing the assumption that tiger population recovery increases conflict across their range’, Animal Conservation, 0, pp. 1–11. https://doi.org/10.1111/acv.70105
